Dr. Gilly Salmon

Centre for Information & Innovation

Open University Business School

Milton Keynes MK7 6AA

G.K.Salmon@open.ac.uk

Web sites: http://oubs.open.ac.uk/gilly

http://oubs.open.ac.uk/e-moderating

http://www.centrinity.com/e-moderating

As the theme of this year’s conference suggests- changing learning environments- teaching and learning experiences are changing around us- we need to interact with them in new ways. My interests are about online learning and teaching especially their impact on teaching staff. Of course, online or not, learning remains largely unexplored territory. Physicists know more about the universe than psychologists about learning! We need to go forward boldly.

We have reached a state of flux as the 21^st Century gathers speed. Many futurists write about four key discontinuities that we will experience in this Century. They are concerned with time and space, mind and body, real and virtual and humans and technologies . Their influence on educational institutions is still incalculable but we all know there is a serious shake-up going on!

Using scenarios is a way of helping us to explore the increasingly puzzling and uncertain world, in which we live and work. A scenario is a descriptive forecast of a future landscape (in this paper, I call them "planets") that an organisation or institution might find itself in. They are not about forecasting the future but about looking at the possibilities. Some authorities call using scenario development "strategic conversations" .

Scenarios help us to make sense of the choices with which we are faced. Scenario planning started in very big organisations to help them understand their external environments. They can also be useful tools for all of us faced with uncertainty and complexity and to look at what’s happening within our own practice and disciplines. It’s a way too of tapping into our own judgements and exploring our own visions as key resources to help us prepare for uncharted territories. In this way we can avoid the simple "solutions" approach and the risks of trivialising significant decisions.

Usually, business scenarios include commercial, sociological, technical, economic, political, regulatory, ecological and other domains that make up the external environment of the business world. In this paper you will see that I’ve tried to consider elements close to our hearts such as assessment, research, teaching philosophies and learning technologies. I have especially focussed on the roles of the online teacher. I hope to promote our strategic conversations and ultimately enable us to work within the realities more happily and successfully. I hope this paper will encourage you to consider our futures, and that of our students by considering "What will we do when this or that happens...?" or "how can we better prepare?".

So here are my ideas for start. For each scenario, I explore what I think will be the implications for online teachers.

Landing on Contenteous you find technology as a delivery system. High importance is given to content management systems, integrated learning management systems, multi media, industry standards, DVDs, digital and cable TV. Rivalry between solutions providers is still strong, though two or three market leaders are emerging.

The associated pedagogy is that of the transmission model of teaching, where information is transferred from experts to novices. Content is king. There is a strong role for the observation of realities (called Big Brother Learning) using the latest technologies. Initially Big Brother Learning was used for clinical practice but is now being deployed across a wide range of disciplines. Economies of scale are reached through reduced interaction between teachers and learners compared to lecture and question mode of teaching. Customers make choices on where to study from media profiles, online resource availability and league tables of various kinds.

Diagnostic tests, delivered early in the learning process, determine which content is needed by which student. Assessment of students’ learning is based on reproduction, comprehension and critique. Frequent automated testing is delivered in very small chunks through complex and structured questions. A popular feature is fast, sophisticated automated feedback which also guides students future learning directions.

On Contenteous a key role for teachers is as the content expert, to develop multi media programmes and to build online libraries and pathways through resources. E-librarians and e-lecturers have closely linked roles. Lecturers need to captivate big audiences. The Internet and digital TV spawns its own lecturing stars and the most successful assume "rock star" status. Some well known professors are emerging as virtual lecturers e.g. Richard Dawkins, John Kay, Susan Greenfield. Support of the elite few requires a very high level of research going on in the background.

IBM estimates that 25% of employees’ skills become obsolete every 3 years. The need to be a continuous and applied learner is especially apparent in domains influenced by scientific and technological advance . Instantia meets these requirements through sophisticated learning object approaches*, with information technology seen as the basic tools. The pedagogy on this planet is usually called e-learning. Computer based courses are offered from desks at work or in learning centres. Learners work and learn almost simultaneously. Flexibility and instantaneousness are the keywords. The costs of travel, training facilities and trainers are slashed compared to on Earth.

Individual learners assess the value of the learning experience asking: is this learning just for me, just in time, just for now and just enough? With the impact of the skills at work shortage and the rise in importance of "corporate universities", experienced professionals only join an organisation that has its own special university. The inclusion of e-career development is standard in salary packages.

The key feature of assessment on this planet is authenticity. Employers consider whether learning provision helps to recruit the right people for the organisation. Employers also evaluate the speed and effectiveness of the learning provision by considering the extent to which organisational performances improve. Assessment tasks are always related to specific work or professional needs and are deeply embedded in the learning activities. Gaming technologies are used to create "real-life" scenarios that combine learning and assessment in seamless environments. There is a high level of tracking of outcomes which are automatically transferred to employees’ development accounts.

This planet has sometimes been accused of naval rather than star gazing-i.e. the inhabitants spend much of their time exploring the core of the planet rather than considering its environment. Telescopes are no longer in use, for example. However with the increase in effective links between e-learning, performance and knowledge management, an improved systemic approach has been achieved and the advocates of life long learning have begun to see the benefits of including Instantia in their universes.

On Instantia, online trainers support autonomous learning (although many learners exist magically on little human contact to sustain them). Real or virtual trainers are available 24 hours a day, both synchronously and asynchronously. Trainers focus on skills development in employees (to enable them to learn in this way) and on ways of fostering the adoption of a strong in-house knowledge culture.

On Nomadict there is less stability, less structure, less fixed time for work and leisure, retirement and education compared to Earth. The sense of physical place is not strong . The Planet Nomadict provides portable learning for mobile lifestyles. Travelling users replace travelling information . Learning on the Planet Nomadict is time independent and individual. The learners are seen as electronic explorers and adventurers.

Learning online is now called m-learning (for mobile-learning) instead of e-learning. For the first time, learning is truly any time, any place. Learners no longer sit in front of computers. Learning devices are carried, worn or are embedded in person’s bodies. Pedagogy is various so individuals choose based on their cognitive preferences and styles. The learner chooses from the (electronic) learning supermarket.

There are few physical classrooms left. Terrestrial universities and corporate training facilities have disappeared; new e-universities have inherited the planet. Students calculate the cost of their courses based on airtime and connection, rather than attendance at class, or purchase of books, as on Earth.

English has become standard for learning. The New Oxford Very Concise Internet Dictionary is the all time best e-seller. (The Campaign for Full English Grammar gave up in 2005). However, m-learning is also popular to support modern language development (visit the country, live in the culture and access your course at the same time).

Technologies are highly portable, individual, adaptable and intuitive to use . Mobile technologies are seen as essential communication and learning tools, rather than as disruptive, as at the turn of the Century. Main technologies in use are Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and Palm Tops, 3^rd generation mobile phones (UMTS), GPS, unfolding keyboards, blow up screens, wireless and personal networks, low orbit satellites, national and international communications network networks, high bandwidth, infra-red connections and e-books. All students have laptops, palm tops and text mobiles. Styli are commoner than pens. Breakthroughs occurred when safety was achieved in the use of mobile phones. Costs of handsets and devices are very low. PDAs were worn in underwear for the first manned mission to Mars. Indeed the latest fashions and jewellery always include a suitable pocket or strap for the PDA

Habitation on Planet Nomadict heralds the move away from "generic" software applications to providing focussed key learning components geared towards an individual learner. Wearable components (WCs) have "context awareness" and hence interact with the users and their environment. They know when to switch themselves off and, importantly, regularly help to pace the learners, day by day, through their courses.

On this planet, students design, negotiate or choose their own assessments, often in collaboration with their assessment helpers. Assessment helpers are sometimes real people, peers or alumni and sometimes programmes based on artificial intelligence. Assessment of learning is in small bites, based largely on projects and outcomes and achieved incrementally. Every assessment event contributes to updating an individual’s learning profile and hence suggesting future learning needs. Interaction is evaluated using the latest computer mediated tools. Biometrics ensure the security of learners’ identities. Portfolio learners expect to transfer their learning credits easily from one institution to another.

Teachers, academics and researchers are as mobile as their students are. Many are portfolio teachers- working for several educational institutions and providers, all over the world, at any one time. They have not only a highly developed awareness of the ways in which traditions of learning and expectations vary in different cultures but also the ability to work across discipline and levels of education. They can break activities and content down into tiny components that can be transmitted and studied in small chunks. They are fully comfortable with using online assessment and confident in the technologies that ensure that the student they are assessing is the same one they are teaching. They can relate well to students without needing to meet with them so the issue of plagiarism is less of a concern than on Earth. They focus on promoting the concepts of ownership of the learning process, active learning, independence, the ability to make judgements, self-motivation and high levels of autonomy. They provide and support resource based learning, working with skilled technicians and e-librarians.

This planet is the outcome of Dibbell’s prediction

On Planet Cafélattia, learning is built around learning communities & interaction, extending access beyond the bounds of time and space, but offering the promise of efficiency and widening access. Think of individuals as nodes on a network ! The key technology is the developed, entertaining, effective Internet (beyond the browser!) to allow immediate and satisfying interaction between students and students, and between teachers and students. Technologies are asynchronous and synchronous group systems to support a wide variety of environments for working and learning together. Groupware in use is specially developed for learning purposes, rather than based on messaging or corporate meeting software as on Earth. Both co- and remotely- located learning communities (clicks and mortar) are of key importance.

Learners connect through both low and high bandwidth devices and systems. Hence the technologies are seen only as mediating devices, promoting creativity and collaboration. Cafélattia learning appeals to a very wide range of people including the increasing numbers and percentages of "grey learners" who have a great deal to offer to others, a desire to learn through non-traditional means and who have the time and resources to access networked technologies.

The pedagogy is based on notions of a very strong social context for learning with the model of acquisition, argumentation and application. A key activity for learners is finding and interacting with like-minded individuals anywhere on the Planet (e.g. by gender, by interest, by profession) and by being intellectually extended by dialogue and challenge from others. Learners express themselves freely through speech and text. The roles of reflection (an essential tool of expert learners), professional development and the sharing of tacit knowledge are of critical importance. Learning is contextualized and given authenticity by the learning group and the learning community (rather than by the University, as on Earth). On and offline resources are important, but electronic and structured information support and stimulate the learning group rather than replace the active, participative learning experience. Cafélattia approaches are very popular in professional and Higher Education such as nursing, medicine and management, and, increasingly in schools.

Assessment is based on complex problem solving and knowledge construction skills.

Assessment is learner driven and negotiated with peers. Assessment is seen as non-restrictive and an enhancement to and motivation for learning. Hence, the level and scope of assessment are largely the product of interaction with other like-minded learners. Group and peer assessment has become the norm. 360 degree assessment is common. Evaluation of contributions to text, interaction and complex problem solving is all automated.

Teachers on Cafélattia think globally but are able to turn their ideas into local and contextualized action. They see the technologies as yet another environment for learning rather than as tools. They are experts at mentoring individuals online and may be seen as companions in the democratic networked learning process, rather than teachers as such. They know when to take part, when to provide expert input, when to act as a peer and when to stay silent. They also have very highly developed skills at online group development for learning and in the use of online resources to stimulate groups (the role I call e-moderation). They know how to welcome and support learners into the online world and to build effective online communities. They act as intelligent agents and facilitators. They have the ability to visualise others in their situations. They know how to allow a sense of humour and fun to manifest itself online. They know how to build gradually on the processes of exchanging information and how to turn this into knowledge sharing and ultimately into knowledge construction.

It’s likely that all the planets will have an element of reality and there will be a variety of players and processes. Institutionally, we will probably see further combinations of these scenarios, such as universities with corporates or colleges partnering media companies. However, patterns of the use of information & communication technologies cannot easily be determined, as the ways learners and explorers use new forms of online learning offerings are unpredictable. Acceptable use and the meaning given to new technologies are a complex mix of "distinctive and perplexing forms of rational and non-rational behaviour" p.45). Silverstone and Haddon see the implementation of information and communication technologies as a process of "taming" wild objects, and adapting them to the routines and rituals of every day life- a process that has largely yet to happen on a wide scale for teaching and learning. I think that as the online teachers increase their skills and add the magical human touch, the wildness can be changed in a more ecologically friendly way! We come down to Earth!

I hope you will start your own strategic conversations, challenge these scenarios and develop new ones! I hope they will help you to see through the confusion, spot developments before they become trends, see patterns before they fully emerge, and grasp the relevant features of learning technologies that do truly reflect our needs, and those of our students. By the way, this is best done with others- from other departments, faculties and universities! Even within our own institutions, dealing with complex scenarios and potential must be done in multi-functional teams. We need to engage fully the providers of the technologies themselves too - in this way deeper understanding and dialogue will emerge. I believe you will be convinced that there is a very strong role for online teachers in all these scenarios, but the way these responsibilities and privileges are discharged may be rather different from yesteryear.

So what will actually happen? To a large extent, it’s up to you - vision it and action it! When you approach each of these planets, check out the atmosphere for yourself before landing. Does it support life for your discipline? Where will the power come from to sustain you on this planet? Are you the first to walk on this planet? And do you want to be? If not, what can you learn from previous explorers? Either way, please make sure your experiences are available for others who follow you, both your successes and your failures. In this way, not only is knowledge built, but a new explorers’ community.

So as you can see, it’s still teaching (Jim!) but not as we’ve known it on Earth. Most of the skills we have already acquired are much needed, but there is more¼ We all need to be out there, together, exploring. In this way, the amazing and diverse planets will continue to be held in the hands of the teachers and learners.

Boxmind (Stanford, Princeton, Tale & Oxford)- funded by venture capital. www.boxmind.com

Quote: "your chances of getting through the Oxford admissions system will be higher than our acceptance rate of websites applying for our approval". Niall Ferguson (founder of Boxmind)

Fathom "content alliances"

http://www.fathom.com/index.jhtml

http://www.lse.ac.uk/Press/fathom.htm

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2001/ocw-facts.html

http://future.sri.com/

"University for Industry" – based on independent learning through work. Self-managed, supported by learning contracts" (assessment: through various in National Qualifications framework)

http://national.learning.net.uk/ufi1.htm – the report

http://www.learndirect.co.uk/- home page

http://www.bus.utexas,edu/kman/kmprin.htm

Corporate university sites are generally hard to access

You can however read papers about them e.g.

http://www.unisys.com/execmag/1999-11-12/journal/sidebar2.htm

http://www.eta.org.uk/bulletin/10-99.html

http://www.ugc.co.uk/learning/lea_b_0100.htm

*Learning objects:

"The technology delivered training of tomorrow is going to be assembled, not authored, from large reservoirs of content presented to the learner…and more emphasis will be placed on building knowledge bases that can be published on the fly" Elliot Masie, The Masie Centre

"In the web based environment, learning objects may be constructed through combining several sub-elements such as HTML, graphics, audio, video or other media elements, as well as documents, Java, and ActiveX components to provide interactivity which is highly desirable in constructing engaging learning experiences. Additionally, Learning Objects may be delivered into non-Web environments such as to interactive TV and to PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants)". Charles Jenning (Online Courseware Factory, 2001).

http://www.fastrak-consulting.co.uk/tactix/features/objects/objects.htm

http://courseware-factory.com/lp-solutions.htm

http://www.capdm.com/demos/software/

http://www.shu.ac.uk/virtual_campus/vcnews/page10.htm

http://ferl.becta.org.uk/frames/cstudies/northlincs/lincsint.htm

FNF Stephen Downes LEARNING OBJECTS

IEEE LTSC Learning Objects Metadata Working Group

Learning Architecture Learning Objects background - Learnativity.com

Learning Objects Metadata and Tools in the Area of Operations Research

Learning Objects

NewsTrolls - New Media - Learning Objects - The Need for and Nature of Learning Objects

Online Reusable Learning Objects

The Instructional Use of Learning Objects

http://www.newwave.co.uk/news/amywatsoncolumn.asp?Key=58

http://www.corous.com/

http://wearables.cs.bris.ac.uk/

http://wearcam.org/mcluhan-keynote.htm

http://www.pjb.co.uk/mobile_comm.htm

http://www.trainingzone.co.uk/item/37933

http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~johnson/papers/mobile/HCIMD1.html

http://human-factors.arc.nasa.gov/ihh/psychophysio/

http://www.microsoft.com/pocketpc/

http://www.forrester.com

http://www.xybernaut.com/

http://www.xybernaut.com/MAV_banner.htm

http://iswc.gatech.edu/

http://www.computergym.co.uk/community/html/worksp.htm

http://www.train-net.co.uk/news/news_story.asp?NewsID=231

http://www.learningtechnologies.ac.uk/research/m_learning.htm

http://www.centrinity.com/e-moderating

http://www.ufiltd.co.uk/update/news/issue5/bigtop.htm

http://www.scip.org.uk/hubs/mobile.htm

http://www.surrey.ac.uk/News/Releases/text/t9-2800note.html

http://www.charmed.com

http://www.cs.columbia.edu/graphics/projects/mars/mars.html

http://csalt.lancs.ac.uk/jisc/

http://collaborate.shef.ac.uk/spender.htm

http://www.shef.ac.uk/uni/projects/wrp/sem2.html

http://cbl.leeds.ac.uk/~tim/networked_learning/

http://www.icbl.hw.ac.uk/jtap-573/cultures.html

http://www.ucisa.ac.uk/TLIG/conf/tlig00/w26/

http://www.talisman.hw.ac.uk/tman-events/240399/report/DMcconnell.html

http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/nle/about/

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/openlearning/

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/primcare-popsci/msc/index.html

http://www.edu.bham.ac.uk/research/crmde/conference/ppt/sharples/sld001.htm

http://oubs.open.ac.uk/gilly

http://oubs.open.ac.uk/e-moderating

http://www.media.uwe.ac.uk/masoud/cal-97/papers/bowski-f.htm

http://materials.netskills.ac.uk/info/module52.html

http://www.derby.ac.uk/ciad/

http://www.scaan.ac.uk/hw_caa.doc

http://www.ltss.bris.ac.uk/VLEintro_5_3.htm

http://www.lboro.ac.uk/service/ltd/flicaa/conf2000/index.html

http://www.lboro.ac.uk/service/ltd/flicaa/conf2001/index.html

http://www.caacentre.ac.uk/

http://www.sgbs.strath.ac.uk/webnews/shownews.asp?newsid=32

http://www.cfsd.org.uk/events/tspd6/tspd6_scenarios.html#s

http://www.lbs.ac.uk/sysdyn/research/scenario_modelling/scenario_modelling.htmla conference at Strathclyde about scenarios in 2002:

http://www.gsb.strath.ac.uk/foresight/

http://oubs.open.ac.uk/future

http://www.sciam.com/1999/0899issue/0899dertouzos.html

http://www.wfs.org/prgwforecast.htm

http://www.iwt.org/iwt_seniorsummt/subgroup_futureofcomputing.htm

Farrell, G.M, (Ed) 2001 The Changing Faces of Virtual Education

www.col.org/virtualed. The Commonwealth of Learning (COL)